It's a 50-50 game folks. - Page 3 - Beat The Casino Forums "Where The Pros Are"

**E. Clifton Davis** · 12-11-2008, 05:22 PM

I never get emotional. If I lose I shoot the dealer. Game over!

**gablaw** · 12-11-2008, 05:40 PM

Before or after he takes your losing bet?

***aegis21*** · 12-11-2008, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archer

LOL, I'll say lighthearted fun :-) I am not angry and I am not trying to attack you, haha. But that is just wrong! LOL. Anecdotally, I see many, many people win money at the Bacc table, big money, too! Geez - think about it; a 50-50 game (kind of). What makes you think that people willy nilly guess wrong so much more than they guess right? Try flipping a coin a thousand times and that should change your mind.

Story: There was a guy I was teaching to play Bacc a few years back. He had a good idea. He said, "Why don't we just figure out a good losing method and play the opposite?" I laughed so hard!

ArcherXX----------------->

"But that is just wrong" Hmmmmmm So when the players bet 1000.00 on bank and other players bet 1000.00 on bank the casino wins more than the commission? How for the love of pete is that possible? Is the color of the sky that different in your world???????????

**E. Clifton Davis** · 12-11-2008, 08:23 PM

I think its because most people play a system of sorts. There is some method to their madness. Many play TB4L which loses all chop favorable shoes AND all neutral shoes. That leaves about 35% winners on a good day. Others play all oppositess with some sort of progression. They lose far more on the streaky shoes than they win on the choppy shoes. Even more play repeats with the same results. The EXTREMELY popular Asian system loses overall. I learned that the hard way. But don't sell the casinos short. They were losing on long runs so they totally eliminated them. We used to see 20 in a rows DAILY now we NEVER see them. Ask yourself HOW did they produce far more 20 in a rows than the mathematical norm. Then ask youself HOW did they eliminate them altogether. Then consider that long runs are the only time the casino is in jeopardy.

Here's an enlightening story: I used to occassionally play the secret high stakes room upstairs at Caesars ($50,000 max). There was never more than one 14 player game going on. The way it works up there, when you finish a shoe everyone gets up and takes their same seat at another table which was completely prepared during the other shoe. As soon as you sit down the cards are dealt. But I never lost up there because the first time I played there I saw right away what was going on. One table was ALWAYS STREAKY and the other ALWAYS choppy. I was ALWAYS the only non Asian there and I never said a word. But it was ALWAYS the same table that was choppy every time I went there. The Asians were getting KILLED. So I played up as you win on opposites on the chop table and repeats on the streak table to a ten unit max bet. This ALWAYS won. But one night one of the Asians asked if he could follow my hand. He was betting $5000 units to my $500. He went from $70,000 down to $70,000 up in one shoe. The casino never said a word to him but they threw me out and barred me. They said it was for using another casino's score card. Never sell casinos short. They know exactly what they are doing and the PROOF is in their table drop % increase. It has increased almost 7 fold over the last 20 years. How did THAT happen???

***aegis21*** · 12-12-2008, 12:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by E. Clifton Davis

They know exactly what they are doing and the PROOF is in their table drop % increase. It has increased almost 7 fold over the last 20 years. How did THAT happen???

That happened with the newer high tech playing cards they are using and the new math in figuring the game advantage. ask Archer, he is a math wizard. He gets more than table commission from an equally bet table of player and bank. One 5 dollar bet on bank and one five dollar bet on player and the casino gets more than bank commission. What a country! I can't let it go..............LOL <bold> ok ok ok I'll stop</bold>

**E. Clifton Davis** · 12-12-2008, 07:18 AM

Yeah but I think Archer will come around. I've seen this many times before. Players come out of Counting school brainwashed into a new kind of math. At the same time they are brainwashed into a fanatic patriotim of card counting. This is a powerful combination making them unapproachable by the sane world for quite some time. Some never get over it and continue to card count. They ignore the fact that all the card counting schools put together can't produce a single winner that is ahead at the end of the year. They are brainwashed into a whole new definition of Standard Deviation which to them totally explains why they can't produce a single winner. All their counters are simply on the wrong side of the Standard Deviation at the moment. Just wait till next year! To card counting gurus E. Clifton Davis is the devil incarnate. They are taught to dispise me and avoid all contact at the "risk of ruin". That's why they immediately go on the attack, before they even get to know me. They are taught to ignore the fact that I always beat them with some sort of Voodoo magic from hell.

But recognize that nearly all 10,000 NBJ players started out as card counters. So I've gone through this brain reconstruction process before a zillion times. But Archer is showing signs that his brain is reviving. He noted with sudden clarity that the simple system he posted has a very strong tendency to win every other bet, and, therefore, is ripe for a shallow progression. HOORAH!

Arch, an NBJ player playing NBJ 3rd base, as he is taught to do in random cards, has a very strong tendency to win every other hand. Therefore, a 3 bet progression is not only acceptable., it is advisable. In that situation the NBJ player will beat the card counters at the same table every time. By a mile. On the other hand once the cards begin to clump from the dealer picking up the break cards first, the NBJ player is taught to play NBJ First Base with Advantage betting. He bets a flat low bet most of the time and reserves his high bet when he expects a ten on his first card because a ten raises his win expectancy to 74%. It is all true and pure logic. He will also beat the cardcounters at the table every time. THAT
is a true advantage bet but there are no advantage bets in Baccarat, just whims. Although the more experience a player has, the better his whims become.

I don't expect that Archer will accept any of this just yet but his brain is showing signs of thawing. I don't think it will be long before we can begin to teach Archer the huge advantages of net betting. All betting systems have their place. The trick is to match the right system to the situation at hand. That is, until you learn how to play SAP. That's the next generation. It throws everything said thus far out the window. Probably cause Archer an embollism if we try to teach him too soon.

BTW, what ever happened to all the card counting schools? The movie "21" seemed to be their Last Hoorah. Just goes to show you that at some point in time even the most brainwashed card counter begins to realize he is losing.

12-11-2008, 05:22 PM	#21 (permalink)
E. Clifton Davis Professional Player \| Co-Founder Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 2,189 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0 Rep Power: 135	Re: It's a 50-50 game folks. I never get emotional. If I lose I shoot the dealer. Game over! __________________ BeatTheCasino ellis@beatthecasino.com

12-11-2008, 05:40 PM	#22 (permalink)
gablaw Universal Bac Player Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: santa fe NM Posts: 106 Downloads: 5 Uploads: 0 Rep Power: 13	Re: It's a 50-50 game folks. Before or after he takes your losing bet?

12-11-2008, 08:23 PM	#24 (permalink)
E. Clifton Davis Professional Player \| Co-Founder Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 2,189 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0 Rep Power: 135	Re: It's a 50-50 game folks. I think its because most people play a system of sorts. There is some method to their madness. Many play TB4L which loses all chop favorable shoes AND all neutral shoes. That leaves about 35% winners on a good day. Others play all oppositess with some sort of progression. They lose far more on the streaky shoes than they win on the choppy shoes. Even more play repeats with the same results. The EXTREMELY popular Asian system loses overall. I learned that the hard way. But don't sell the casinos short. They were losing on long runs so they totally eliminated them. We used to see 20 in a rows DAILY now we NEVER see them. Ask yourself HOW did they produce far more 20 in a rows than the mathematical norm. Then ask youself HOW did they eliminate them altogether. Then consider that long runs are the only time the casino is in jeopardy. Here's an enlightening story: I used to occassionally play the secret high stakes room upstairs at Caesars ($50,000 max). There was never more than one 14 player game going on. The way it works up there, when you finish a shoe everyone gets up and takes their same seat at another table which was completely prepared during the other shoe. As soon as you sit down the cards are dealt. But I never lost up there because the first time I played there I saw right away what was going on. One table was ALWAYS STREAKY and the other ALWAYS choppy. I was ALWAYS the only non Asian there and I never said a word. But it was ALWAYS the same table that was choppy every time I went there. The Asians were getting KILLED. So I played up as you win on opposites on the chop table and repeats on the streak table to a ten unit max bet. This ALWAYS won. But one night one of the Asians asked if he could follow my hand. He was betting $5000 units to my $500. He went from $70,000 down to $70,000 up in one shoe. The casino never said a word to him but they threw me out and barred me. They said it was for using another casino's score card. Never sell casinos short. They know exactly what they are doing and the PROOF is in their table drop % increase. It has increased almost 7 fold over the last 20 years. How did THAT happen??? __________________ BeatTheCasino ellis@beatthecasino.com Last edited by E. Clifton Davis; 12-11-2008 at 08:26 PM.

12-12-2008, 07:18 AM	#26 (permalink)
E. Clifton Davis Professional Player \| Co-Founder Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 2,189 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0 Rep Power: 135	Re: It's a 50-50 game folks. Yeah but I think Archer will come around. I've seen this many times before. Players come out of Counting school brainwashed into a new kind of math. At the same time they are brainwashed into a fanatic patriotim of card counting. This is a powerful combination making them unapproachable by the sane world for quite some time. Some never get over it and continue to card count. They ignore the fact that all the card counting schools put together can't produce a single winner that is ahead at the end of the year. They are brainwashed into a whole new definition of Standard Deviation which to them totally explains why they can't produce a single winner. All their counters are simply on the wrong side of the Standard Deviation at the moment. Just wait till next year! To card counting gurus E. Clifton Davis is the devil incarnate. They are taught to dispise me and avoid all contact at the "risk of ruin". That's why they immediately go on the attack, before they even get to know me. They are taught to ignore the fact that I always beat them with some sort of Voodoo magic from hell. But recognize that nearly all 10,000 NBJ players started out as card counters. So I've gone through this brain reconstruction process before a zillion times. But Archer is showing signs that his brain is reviving. He noted with sudden clarity that the simple system he posted has a very strong tendency to win every other bet, and, therefore, is ripe for a shallow progression. HOORAH! Arch, an NBJ player playing NBJ 3rd base, as he is taught to do in random cards, has a very strong tendency to win every other hand. Therefore, a 3 bet progression is not only acceptable., it is advisable. In that situation the NBJ player will beat the card counters at the same table every time. By a mile. On the other hand once the cards begin to clump from the dealer picking up the break cards first, the NBJ player is taught to play NBJ First Base with Advantage betting. He bets a flat low bet most of the time and reserves his high bet when he expects a ten on his first card because a ten raises his win expectancy to 74%. It is all true and pure logic. He will also beat the cardcounters at the table every time. THAT is a true advantage bet but there are no advantage bets in Baccarat, just whims. Although the more experience a player has, the better his whims become. I don't expect that Archer will accept any of this just yet but his brain is showing signs of thawing. I don't think it will be long before we can begin to teach Archer the huge advantages of net betting. All betting systems have their place. The trick is to match the right system to the situation at hand. That is, until you learn how to play SAP. That's the next generation. It throws everything said thus far out the window. Probably cause Archer an embollism if we try to teach him too soon. BTW, what ever happened to all the card counting schools? The movie "21" seemed to be their Last Hoorah. Just goes to show you that at some point in time even the most brainwashed card counter begins to realize he is losing. __________________ BeatTheCasino ellis@beatthecasino.com Last edited by E. Clifton Davis; 12-12-2008 at 07:37 AM.

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