josh777

Baccaratkid-
A couple of questions...
1) If a person has the "ability" to lose at a greater rate than commission, shouldn't it be just as easy to develop a system that wins at a greater rate than commission?
2) Do you ever worry that a losing player will notice their W/L tendencies and change their betting pattern?

josh777

Baccaratkid-
I meant that it should be possible to develop a winning system without regard to what others are betting at the table.
You are able to target players who lose at a faster rate than the odds would suggest.
Doesn't it stand to reason that the "individual judgement" of some players is strong enough to overcome commission?

E. Clifton Davis

Originally Posted by Thebaccaratkid
"Developing a winning system without regard to what others are doing is not possible, ellis has been trying for years and has failed every time."

Now that's an out and out lie as you well know. We've been winning playing SAP for three years as many players have attested to as well as posting their trip reports and shoes.

You seem to think that you invented playing against losing players. Perhaps so in England. But here in the States many players, if not most, play that way and have been doing so for two decades, particularly among the Asians. I put that method in the prelude of most of my early manuals 20 years ago. But only as a way to play while you are learning how to play. I even posted it in this forum but again only if you don't know how to play. But in spite of that fact, The casino % of the drop is up 860% over the same 20 years. And at 26% of the drop, casinos could abolish commission with hardly a small dent in their annual profits in Baccarat. For a while, the Horseshoe did exactly that. Perhaps you have got the selection of your losing player down to a science there in London but I strongly suspect that if you try this in Vegas you'll have a lot more than the smoke to worry about. Many have tried but were ever successful to my knowledge and I've seen many lose their shirt. BTW, there are smokeless casinos in Vegas so don't use that as an excuse.

Josh is absolutely correct. Once a player knows how to take advantage of the most common and least common events in a shoe He will begin to win at a rate of 80+ % and the remarkable thing is that he will consistently be the lowest bettor at the table averaging only 40-45 units bet per 72 play shoe not counting ties.

What? Are you saying that all of these players are lying? Maybe the full timers are really going out and robbing banks and then making up shoes to post? Try telling them that to their face and see what happens.

Look I invited you to this forum because I thought you might have something to offer. But if you continue to come on here and lie W/O any idea of what you are talking about, and calling our members liars, I can revoke that privilege even quicker than I granted it.

Don't believe everything you read on other sites. They have good reason to lie, you don't.

As soon as you say the system they are playing doesn't win you are calling them all liars. Best to stay in London, You might run into a few of them in Vegas. You'll have a lot more to deal with than smoke!

__________________
BeatTheCasino
ellis@beatthecasino.com

Zenwin

Hi,

I'll agree with Ellis. Sounded like Baccaratkid is doing some Asian trick (as I'm Chinese I know) we call it 'Looking for a light bulb' (meaning to find someone who is a loser to bet against). Wooo... you're not Chinese, are you Baccaratkid ?

No offense I hope if you're or not, but you'll have to lookout. Especailly Asians hate to be spotted as a loser.

Just some interesting facts, if there are more than one of you doing this at the table, it will be confusing wouldn't it ? Believe me, it had happened in Macau before, it was a mess.

E. Clifton Davis

Speaking of math tricks kid tell me this: I put a $100 dollar bill under one of 3 cups and ask you to pick one. You say #1 . I turn over #2 showing you its empty and ask if you want to change your mind. Should you and why?

I suspect the answer you were looking for back there was since commission is 1.25% of the money bet, $10 hands would cost 12.5 cents ea. Therefore he should last $100 / .125 = 800 hands. But in the real world he will last as long as it takes for him to be 9 units down which could easily happen in the first shoe. Why 9 and not 10? because he must save a unit for commission.

It's similar to the BJ question I ask in all BJ siminars. How long will $100 last in a $10 BJ game. The novice will say that at the casinos published advantage of 1/2 % he should last 100/ .50 = 200 hands. But then the experienved player will always chime in with. "He'll probably be buying in again before the first shoe is over." That's the real world and that's the difference between the math head and the player.

OK, I took a shot at yours. You take a shot at mine. Please feel free to critique me. Cause I'm sure gonna critique you.

__________________
BeatTheCasino
ellis@beatthecasino.com

E. Clifton Davis

Yeah, sometimes when I play where I'm not known, All the Asians bet against me. But that never lasts for more than a shoe!

But when I play Tunica and somebody comes over and asks the dealer how to play the dealer will point at me and say its very simple. Just sit down and do whatever he does.

__________________
BeatTheCasino
ellis@beatthecasino.com

aegis21

He did quite well, his 12/26/08 trip is posted on the private forum. I do not recall him losing a game on that trip! let me check tho....brb.....
12/26/08 3 games
#1 (0)
#2 (+2)
#3 (-4) down 2 units for the day
12/27/08 5 games
#1 (+1)
#2 (+9)
#3 (+4)
#4 (+23)
#5 (+15) Up 52 units for the day

Two day total --- up 50 units @ $500.00 per unit (I think thats what he is playing now) So he is Up $25,000.00 for the two days
I'd say that was a pretty darm good result...whadda think mate???
Please KIDDO let me know if your unit bet is correct for the amount per unit. All else is from your posted results, way to go Kiddo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

__________________
-----------------------
John

KIDDO

YTD Summary 2008
Win 26
Loss 4
Shoes Played 31
Ratio (%) 83.87%
AVG U Bet/Shoe 72.56
AVG U Won/Shoe 8.61
AVG P.A. 11.50%
BANKROLL UNIT 272
PROFIT/LOSS 906.67%

those are the results from my last 6 trips and yes I am playing 500 units

E. Clifton Davis

I don't think he's seeing your post over here in the public forum. The last update I received, Kiddo, playing SAP FE was just under $140,000 after 31 shoes at 4 casinos with 3 losses averaging 9 units a shoe with a 12% Player advantage and a 90% win rate W/O ever betting more than 2 units. His avg total bets per shoe were 73 units. I strongly suspect that was the Best baccarat ever played by anyone anywhere in the history of the game, esp. considering his max bet of only 2 units. I'm sure Kiddo will post an update over here in the public forum as soon as he gets a chance. We've been keeping him pretty busy over in the private forum lately as you might suspect. The private forum is the only place you can learn SAP FE. I previously reported that he had 4 losses but I was wrong.

__________________
BeatTheCasino
ellis@beatthecasino.com

E. Clifton Davis

Heh heh, Like I just said yesterday on this forum, your chances of guessing SAP are about the same as accidentally discovering nuclear fussion. You managed to get everything wrong. SAP FE is not nearly as simple as that.

As I've also said on the public forum the average loss is -4.

And as I've also said on the public forum, you are actually better off with no stop loss. The stop loss is a comfort feature. As any mathematician knows, cash mgt. actually works against you in the long run.

And as I've said on the public forum, SAP FE works on a clear, decisive, true mathematical advantage as all members can attest. What you are describing would have no mathematical advantage whatsoever.

And, one more time, NO you are not betting a progression. Sometimes your 2 bets follow losing 1's ,sometimes winning 1's and sometimes 2's but your avg bet size is much closer to 1 than to 2 as you can clearly see from Kiddo's reports. His total units bet per shoe averaged 73 in 8 deck shoes.

You could keep guessing for 100 years and still not get any part of it right.

__________________
BeatTheCasino
ellis@beatthecasino.com