OK, Audionut, you are most likely going to really like this, because you can average 17 net units per shoe. As above, I begin my 1 unit bet following the last win result and go up one or down one unit on the opposing side to net bet...in this case, you bet 2 as your opposing net bet and the net bet tells you where to place your real money bet accordingly. Now, what I do is if I happen to win the 1 unit bet, I go into a positive progression and bet a 2 unit bet on the same side or follow the last. The opposing net bet would then be a 1 unit bet. If the 2 unit bet wins, my option would be to bet a 3 unit bet on the same result and my opposing bet would be a 2 unit bet, but I only do this 3 or more unit progression when the shoe has done well for me and is a running pattern. Otherwise, I am more conservative and just return back to a 1 unit bet after I have a win on the 2 unit bet side. If the 1 unit bet loses I am back to betting a 1 unit bet under the last winning hand result as before. I also tend to drop the progression on one side that has lost 3 times in a row and come back to that side once a win result returns. The opposing side - just continue betting 1 units or do a 1,2 unit bet on the run OTR until it breaks. I call this method of net betting the Wonder Method just to have a way of calling it by name. Anyway, give it a try! When everything is going your way this method does really well...it has for me, I have won many shoes in a row and playing the through each shoe can net 17 units, but be conservative and get out with a nice win by hand 50 and take a break before the next shoe starts. Good Luck! Give me a reply and tell me what you think!

PLay by play Overview of post 16 game played NB OvR


Again, it is best to make a color copy of the above shoe prior to continuing for reference purposes.

The O/R spread of this shoe is 13, a high of +10 at play 39, and a low of -3 at play72. Again this demonstrates that while OvR (Opposites versus Repeats) Net Betting prefers a tight close to 0 O/R count, it can handle some surprisingly high O/R spreads. Again the avg O/R spread in US Baccarat is 8 which OvR NB can easily handle. The spread in this shoe actually hit 13 but we ended up in good shape and our score was never in the negative, therefore, no drawdown.

One thing that helped us greatly in this shoe is the abundance of 3s. 7 3s and no 4s. OvR NB does very well on 3s. Unlike S40, OvR NB actually beats 3s. Look at the 3 starting at play 8. Our score was +4 before the 3 started and +7 after it ended.

But suppose it had been the other way around and the shoe was high in 4s. Fine, we simply would have made our red prog 12340 instead of 1230. Now our system likes 4s and 3s. We can do the same trick with Opposites. That is the beauty of this: it can adjust to almost any condition.

OK, now refer to your copy of the game:

Play 1:
We can make no entries because we are playing OvR and at play 1 we don't yet know O from R. But the first play serves to provide that info (unless it happens to be a tie. In that case the next play becomes our first play.)

PLay 2:
Once we have an outcome at play 1 we can make our entries at play 2. We are color coding our O prog red so we enter a red 1 on P because that is Opposite the circle at play 1. We enter a blue 1 on B because B is the side Repeating the circle at play 1. But now our entries are 1v1 so we have no table bet at play 2 which is always the case. We don't bet when our entries are tied. So our score is still 0 at play 2.

Play 3:Our red 1 lost (uncircled) at play 2 so it goes to 2 at play 3 on P because P is opposite the circle at play 2. Our blue 1 won at play 2 so it stays at 1 at play 3 on the repeat side which is B.

OK we subtract the blue 1 from the red 2. The difference is 1 so our table bet is 1 on P because P had the higher entry. We win so our score goes from 0 to +1 at play 3. See, we don't need those other columns because we all know that 2-1=1. And we all also know that 2 is higher than 1.

Before we go to play 4 I just want to mention that this may seem complex to some. That is just because it is your first time seeing it. NB is taught nowhere else and it is different from anything you have ever tried. It is for harder to write it than to actually do it. I suspect Witchy had her reservations too. But by her second try she played it perfectly and did a whole shoe perfectly in a matter of minutes. Once you actually try it, you will see how simple it is. 2 shoes and you can do it automatically.

Play 4:Ok, the blue 1 lost at play 3 so it goes to 2 at play 4 because that is the repeat side. The red 2 won at play 3 so it goes down to 1 at play 4 on the O side which is B. 1 from 2 is 1 so our table bet is 1 on P. Whoops, our score goes back to 0.

Play 5:
The red 1 won at play 4 so it stays at 1 on P at play 5. The blue 2 lost at play 4 so it goes to 3 at play 5 on the repeat side which is B. Our bet is 3-1 or 2 on B, the high side. We win and our score goes to +2.

BTW, in the long run there are just as many Opposites as Repeats in Baccarat. So neither the red prog nor the blue prog has any inherent advantage. The advantage is that you get several chances to get it right. One side must win every play. Ties don't count. We just skip a tie altogether.

But what if we get a long run? It is not long runs we need to worry about. We always beat those whether straight or ZZ. And we always beat TTs regardless of length. It is short runs precisely the wrong length we need to worry about. But even when you lose a whole prog it is only 3 units. NOR it's as least 6. Plus with NB, it's harder to lose a prog in the first place. Look at the 3358 near the end. We breezed right through it. That would have killed NOR.

Play 6:The losing red 1 goes to 2 and the winning blue 3 goes to 1. We win again and our score goes to +3. By now you should clearly see that the red prog is strictly betting Opposites and the blue prog is betting Repeats.

Play 7:The losing blue 1 goes to 2 and the winning red 2 goes to 1. Our table bet is 1 on P. We win our third bet in a row and our score goes to +4.

Play 8:The losing red 1 goes to 2 and and the winning blue 2 goes to 1. Our 4th win in a row. +5

Play 9:The winning red 2 goes to 1 and the losing blue 1 goes to 2. 5 in a row. +6. By now you should note that this system always wins every bet in the TT's (Terrible Twos) ( BB PP BB) Very common.

Play 10:The losing red 1 goes to 2 and the winningblue 2 goes to 1 making our bet 1 on P but we lose and our score goes to +5.

But then we win our 2 bet at play 11 putting our score at +7.

Now let's skip down to play 15 because that is our first losing 2 bet. Our red 3 loses so it goes to a red 0. It waits for a winning 0 and then restarts at 1. But our blue prog keeps going until it also loses its 3 and goes to 0 while the red prog keeps going. It works out that you can never have a 0v0. You always have 2 opposing bets even though one side might be at 0.

You can also never get to a 3 bet as long as you keep both progs at 1230. So see, whether you stop at +10 or continue to +14 or +15, all of those are excellent scores considering we never bet more than 2 units and we were not dealing with a preferred close OR disparity shoe, in fact, just the opposite.

I think that about covers it. The rest of the shoe is repetition. You should be able to play it this basic way at this point.

Make yourself a blank of this shoe and try it w/o cheating. You should be able to do it just fine by your second or third try. Before long you won't really need the color coding. But color code anyway. We also use it to adjust our prog lengths as you will soon see.

Now, let's get into some tricks of the trade.

OK, we played this shoe all the way through with both colors playing a 1230 prog.

Should we have done that? No!

There are times to increase one color or the other or both to 12340.

There are also times to decrease one prog or the other (seldom both) to only 120.

When should we increase a color to 12340?

When it is usually or always winning the 1st 0 bet after the losing 3. This is only common sense - if we are winning the bet we would much rather be winning 4s than 0s. After all, our max table bet is still only 3.

It so happens that, strangely, this never came up in the sample shoe. We managed to lose every single initial 0 bet but this is a GOOD thing - we WANT to lose 0 bets. We got lucky if there is such a thing.

But look at it this way: There is an average of one 5 and one 6+ per shoe. This means that more than a third of all shoes never see a 5+. In those shoes the 12340 never loses a single progression. Get it?

Now when would we shorten our prog to 1,2,0?
When that color prog is consistenly losing its 3. Hey, if the 3s are losing, why bet them??? Common sense again. Now I wouldn'd react to a prog's first losing 3 but 2 in a row is trying to tell us something.

Look at the blue prog. It loses its first 3 at play 19. It loses its very next 3 at play 31. At that point I'm going to stop making losing blue 3s until it would have won. Now we pick up 3 extra units at play 37 and again at play 54. The blue prog is so strong it never gets to another 3 bet until the last play of the shoe and I'm long gone by then. I would have had my +20 back at play 60 and quit for sure. So, big whip, I could have hit +21 at play 61. I would have already colored up by then and paid my commission. +14 is good! +20 is professional play.

One more general NB tip:

Low 1's favor OvR
High 1's favor PvB

When 1's are about normal, ( close to 1/4 of the play #) we go by 2s

Low 2s favor PvB
High 2s favor OvR

No, we don't need an SAP chart.

If a count of 1's thus far is greater than one quarter of the play number, 1's are high.
If less than 1/4 of the Play #, 1's are low.

But if 1's are close to 1/4 of the Play # we go by 2s:

Hi 2s are greater than 1/8 of the play#. We go with OvR
Low 2s are less than 1/8 of the play #. We go with PvB

There is nothing that says we can't change from OvR to PvB or vice versa as the status of 1's changes.Therefore we want to keep a close watch on 1's to be sure we are playing the most advantageous way. That is what keeps NB from being totally mechanical.

High 1's = PvB
Low 1's = OvR

This is not a small thing.
Both eventually get on ZZ runs but PvB is on ZZs right from the beginning and wins every bet.
OvR is on the TTs right from the beginning and wins every bet.

We need to learn to be proficient with both forms of NB.

I feel I owe the forum an explanation for my negativity toward XDX.

How did all of this start?

BTC is not an open forum. Unlike BF, we have one teacher at BTC. At BF anybody can teach anything, proven or not, qualified or not, and thusly that forum has become one huge argument with a few scammers thrown in. The person who gets the floor there is the one who yells the loudest who is usually also the one who knows the least.

We have one prior experience with allowing someone else to teach at BTC and that was Maverick. We ended up losing some ten players to Maverick and those players ended up losing their shirts, most, more than their shirts. Some of the things Mark taught were downright suicidal, like "when you lose, double your unit." But that wasn't the only thing. Few students would realize that Maverick is purely mechanical and Mathematically, purely mechanical systems CAN'T win in the long run.

PJ, realizing that Maverick was a giant step in the wrong direction, (much to his credit) also left BTC with a small splinter group who worked on correcting SAP.

So about the first of Feb. PJ called me stating that he had learned to play W/O using a score card and betting only on 2nd liners. He said he had been playing this way for some time with good success and would like to teach my students. I replied that while I think playing W/O a scorecard and betting exclusively on 2nd liners W/O also betting first liners, is silly it might have some appeal to our most casual players who are primarily looking for the simplest way to play. And, I was going to be predisposed in Feb anyway.

Keith BTW was against the whole thing from the start. As it turned out, he was right.

But that isn't what PJ did. As soon as he got the floor he delved right into SAP. XDX is simply a name. It is SAP but waiting for a larger SAP disparity to bet. And instead of no score card he went with special scorecards. None of this had been agreed to and with good reason.

I'm not even going to get into the argument of what constitutes a trend, a disparity of 2 or a disparity of 3. All I know is the longer you wait the less likely the next play will follow that same trend. That is not mathematics, it is common sense. The idea is to get on a trend when it starts, not after it is over. That is what NOR tries to do.

Lets take 2nd liners first:

To bet 1st liners you simply bet that an opposite will follow an opposite.
To bet 2nd liners you bet that a repeat will follow an opposite.

But you can't bet either one until there is an opposite.

Neither has any advantage long run. It is 50/50.

Saying "they seem to come in" doesn't cut it. Math is math. The FACT is that second liners come in half the time and also don't come in half the time.

But nearly every shoe you play is either high in 1st liners or it's high in 2nd liners. The only other possibility is that the 2 are tied. But you can't have a shoe high in both. That is impossible. So if that is the way you want to play or if you want to augment your play with 1st vs 2nd liner bets you need a way to know which the shoe you are playing right now is favoring, 1st or 2nd liners.

Well fortunately there is a perfect count that gives you that precise information. That count is 1's vs 2 or mores or 1v2+. That is a precisely balanced count. Simply count a confirmed 1 as +1 and a 2 or more as -1. A + count shoe is favoring 1st liners and a - count shoe is favoring 2nd liners and the higher the count number the more the favorability. Now you are betting on something tangible, not on a whim.

But, you say, we get these clusters. No you don't, You get singles just as often as you get clusters. A cluster of 1st liners is a ZZ run. A cluster of 2nd liners is a series of straight runs of 2 or more in a row. Neither occur more than they mathematically should but a choppy shoe (half of all shoes) will favor ZZs somewhat while a streaky shoe (the other half) will favor runs following runs somewhat (RD1 shoes).

Those are the facts of the matter once you boil all of the BS out of it. I have no idea of why anyone would chose to bet one to the exclusion of the other. They both carry the exact same advantage. Sorry but that is not opinion. It is simple math.

So if you want to bet 1st and 2nd liners be my guest but use the above count so you know which is favored in the shoe at hand and what that favorability is. If the count is close, DON'T bet on it. But betting one W/O the other is mathematically silly and borders on superstition. Also, you can bet 1st v 2nd liners in conjunction with ANY system, not just SAP.


OK now lets look at the SAP end of XDX: But let's look at it logically and W/O the emotion that it seems to draw.

Look, I have nothing personal against SAP. I invented it for crying out loud. Yes of course there was collaboration and I had help testing it, especially from Andrea, but the initial concept is mine and mine alone. Likewise, the responsibility is mine and mine alone. We certainly didn't teach it to each other. PJ may have learned it from multiple sources but it came from one source.

The concept is highly valid but 3 drawbacks are also highly valid:

1. SAP has no advantage in Neutral shoes and casinos are dealing more and more Neutral shoes because that is their most profitable shoe type.

2. SAP loses much of its advantage in preshuffled cards. This is why our many Asian players have trouble with the consistancy of NOR Modes. They are based on SAP. They are playing mostly preshuffled cards. There is a logical way around that which I have hinted at before but we need an official NOR chapter that deals directly with that issue.

3. But the biggest problem is that 95% of our members simply can't perform SAP. We can't ignore 95% of our members for the sake of 5%. For a forum, that is suicidal. And XDX is even harder. PJ couldn't even get it right and if the teacher is having problems what chance do the students have???

Sure, we had 8 or 9 members trying to follow it with varying degrees of success but that is only 1% of the membership. We had 3 times that number contacting Keith and I saying it simply wasn't working for them where they play. Some threatening to quit because the forum had abandoned them. We had been down that road before with SAP. We lost membership with SAP because no matter how good a system is it is worthless to a member who can't do it at all, let alone at casino speed and with all the distractions and pressures of casino play.

It reminds me of when the State Police tried going to the Mustang. Sure, they were really fast but nobody could keep them on the damn road and that needs to be a FIRST priority.

Which brings us back to NOR. NOR is my way of correcting SAP's short comings. So OK, it corrects 2 out of 3 but that is a whole lot better than 0 out of 3. So OK, I've got more work to do under the heading of Mode selection with preshuffled cards. But we can fix that by always staying in the lower betting Mode 2 and playing a prog on our OTR bets. We already have excellent data and results on that way of playing.

In spite of recent statements made to the contrary NOR has the highest hit rate and shoe win rate of any way I have ever played. With NORA we can add a few advantage bets to NOR. We can also add 1st vs 2nd liner bets but lets do that right. Sure, it is a little complex but not out of reach of the vast majority of our members with a little study and practice and far simpler than SAP and W/O the short comings of SAP.

I apologize for this whole fiasco but if the original agreement had been stuck to.....

I do appreciate the tremendous amount of work PJ put into this and I know you do to. I think that was part of the problem. You simply can't work that hard on someting that complex for that long W/O it taking its toll whether you realize it or not. I know. Been there, done that.

Hello, Ellis,

I wanted to attach a few shoes that HawaiiAl and Way2Fast and myself played over the Jan 6-9 wknd this new year at Aria and MGM. I believe these examples (hopefully the scanned images are readable for study and review and comments) show positively how ROBUST your NOR approach is - especially using the basic 112 and 123 progressions - and then pushing to 234 on winning series. I welcome comments from all BTC members.

However - personally for me - the best part of that wknd was to meet up with HawaiiAl and Way2Fast. Disclosure - I am primarily an Exploit SAP player and generally have a difficult time playing many hds per shoe. There are shoes where "sniper baccarat" is impossible - enter on losing trades, missing out winning trades. The power of NOR is that it forces the player to survive and filter weak shoes - and play strong bias/disparity to have high winning %. In this manner, I believe NOR is a significant tool for all players.

HawaiiAl and Way2Fast - these are two fantastic individuals and very solid NOR players! Let me describe briefly the critical success factors I observed during 2 solid days of playing and study with HawaiiAl and Way2Fast:

1. Most important tool = mental flexibility and attitude. Excellent sense of humor, patience, ability to enjoy betting and execution of NOR. No PAIN or FEAR associated with intermittent losses and drawdowns within shoes. I believe that players WITHOUT patience, humor, relaxation - CANNOT WIN in gambling.
2. Detailed study and application of NOR systems. I observed only occasional deviations/errors from the NOR plans. Occasionally due to errors - otherwise due to a difference in interpretation of the shoe at hand.
3. Adequate bankroll capital. Primarily using a 112 or 123 progression - both HawaiiAl and Way2Fast had more than adequate capital (and hence no desperation) to play thru the entire wknd.
4. Ability to wait - and identify the primary NOR shoe type - BEFORE engaging a single bet.

Ellis - you have done a fantastic job for all players with your SAP, NOR bacc systems! But just as important - you have also established some fun social networks amongst BTC members. This makes playing all the more enjoyable when we are playing NOR together.

2nd disclosure - I am NOT (yet?) playing every hd as called for by NOR. This is my personal "evolution" - don't know if possible, but well worth the fun journey. Playing with HawaiiAl and Way2Fast provides some conditioning for me as well!

Finally - also greetings to NormA - who I've played on many occasions (another fine and considerate BTC excellent player). NormA primarily plays SAP and bets focused on either LCs or MCs.

BTC members - take your time looking thru the enclosed shoes. Thanks to Way2Fast to provide these scanned images. Both HawaiiAl and Way2Fast played nearly identical for all shoes shown.

Later - I will add comments to my own observations and deviations/interpretations of some of these shoes.

Ellis- thanks again for a great baccarat community - and for your SAP and NOR ongoing research and explorations!

Regards,

Daytrader77459

PS - Way2Fast, HawaiiAl - look forward to see you both again very soon for more "evolution" training! :)

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Well, Jerry and finas and core, it took considerable thought but there is a sound mathematical reason to have a fear of F. But we also have to be careful we don't jump out of the frying pan into the fire. Try to follow my reasoning here.

Playing any of the 3 NOR systems we are really only at risk when we attempt to bet OTR. When you think about it, the only way we can lose is by losing OTR bets. If we win our OTR bets we win the shoe plain and simple.

Agreed?

Therefore we can say that OTR bets cause fear and rightfully so.

But the 3 systems do NOT generate OTR bets equally.

F produces the most OTR bets because OTR bets are decided by the disparity between 2s and 3s.

S40 is decided by 3s vs 4s which only occur half as often.

OTB4L is decided by 4s vs 5s cutting the occurrence of OTR in half yet again.

So F is the most scary while OTB4L is the least scary. And they aren't close.

F can generate 4 times as many high risk bets as OTB4L.

This might explain why I tend to like OTB4L shoes the most and actually look for OTB4L tables first. And also why I go OTB4L already when the only evidence is a confirmed 2 in the first 4 plays. And often I don't even wait for the confirmation when OTB4L has been doing well at that table in prior shoes.

Maybe there was a mathematical reason for my madness that I had simply not isolated, exposed and examined before. But I knew it subconsciously.

This would particularly explain why F is more scary in chop shoes than in streak shoes. Chop shoes simply have more 2s and 3s than streaky shoes.

Guys, I've got to run to a Doctor's appointment. But I have more to say about this and RD1 vs RD2 so I'll finish my thoughts when I return in a separate post.

Hi Ellis,
Regarding Modes. To play mode 2 or 3 do you decide which mode by the LC ? If not what decides which mode to play ?

In 123 betting system after a winning bet do you just bet a 1 unit or do you bet a 1,2,1,2,1,2, as the old 1-5 U1D2M2 ?

Frank77

Hi Ellis,
Regarding Modes. To play mode 2 or 3 do you decide which mode by the LC ? If not what decides which mode to play ?

In 123 betting system after a winning bet do you just bet a 1 unit or do you bet a 1,2,1,2,1,2, as the old 1-5 U1D2M2 ?

Frank77

Hi Ellis,

I started playing 2 shoes and could not get off first base. Could you please comment.
B225112154222242 This is the !st shoe
B111112211812111231113341 This is the 2nd shoe.

About money management. You said when starting and you would reach -8 or more with your next bet leave the game.
What are the triggers to stop playing? Eg I believe when you reach +6 you would stop betting if your next bet would take you below +1. Is there a trigger when you reach +10, +15, +20, +30, ?When betting 123 4 progression,when do you switch to 234 and 345 progressions? Is it after a +10 unit win or +15 unit win. What is your exit strategy. Would love to hear your comment. Thanks

Frank77

So OK, you've learned all of the NOR rules.
You've practiced at home.
You've gotten all your questions answered.

So does that make you a Baccarat Pro?

Not yet!

Now you must learn to THINK like a Pro, act like a Pro and perform like a Pro.

The Pro KNOWS and fully understands that the overall odds are against him. But he also knows that all casinos have vulnerabilities and some more than others. He KNOWS that he can't beat every table. But he also KNOWS that he can beat certain situations and he knows how to search out and identify those situations. He either finds a table he KNOWS he can beat or he doesn't play. He takes his time.

Time favors the casino. The Pro knows this but he also knows how to grasp control of time and take that advantage away from the casino and take advantage of time himself. He does this by ONLY playing winning situations.

Unlike all other methods, NOR gives the Pro THREE winning situations: Chop, Streak, and Neutral. ALL other methods have only ONE winning situation. The Pro knows this and looks for all 3 but he will only settle for the best and strongest situation in the casino. And if he finds none, he has the discipline to NOT play. He does NOT think in terms of dollars per hour. He knows that in the long run, the best dollors per hour is produced by the best table search.

The Pro fully understands that the contest is between his single brain against the casino's collective brain. Therefore he only plays when he is in peak mental condition - only when he KNOWS he will win. The REAL contest is between him and himself!

The Pro is not influenced by the other players. He is completely oblivious to them. He KNOWS that the other players lose to the tune a collective -26%. Since the Pro knows what he is doing and completely ignors the other players, he is usually first to get his bet up. And he is usually the biggest winner and often the ONLY winner even though he is often the smallest bettor. He is also usually the first to get out of the shoe.

The Pro religiously adheres to Rule Number One:

"NEVER PLAY A LOSING GAME"

If the game starts off bad, he is out of there! He doesn't wait for -8. He doesn't want the game to be a contest. He wants it to be a sure thing!

The Pro is usually the first player out of the game. He knows that his 123 4 is good for +10 and dangerous after that. Likewise he knows that his 234 is good for +15 to 20 and his 345 +20 to 30. He doesn't tempt fate. But he is quick to exploit a good game by upgrading to his higher progs when he is winning his first bets and not losing his third bets. He plays the game to what it is worth, not more but not less.

The Pro doesn't chase his losing bets. He fully understands that losing bets are a signal to QUIT and not a signal to bet more. He is likely the ONLY player at the table who understands this.

The Pro does not make a splash at the casino. He plays under the radar. He is usually the lowest bettor in number of units and NEVER makes desparation bets. Nevertheless the other players often end up following the Pro. He is used to this but ignors it.

The Pro is very at home in the casino because he already knew he was going to win before he ever got there. He never gets excited and never loses his temper. He's very cool!

So, are you ready to be a Pro?